On March 5, 2025, Dr. Johannes Leitner (L&M PRISK), Dr. Hannes Meissner (L&M PRISK), Dr. Cecilia Emma Sottilotta (University for Foreigners in Perugia) and Dr. Julian Campisi (University of Toronto) - the editors of “The Roudledge Handbook of Political Risk” - launched their book at the International Studies Association (ISA) General Conference in Chicago. Following a meeting at the Taylor & Francis booth in the publishers' exhibit hall (see photo below), a public roundtable was held where the editors emphasized the relevance of the handbook for academics, practitioners and consultants in light of the current global polycrisis. In addition, three other authors presented their chapters. Carlo Gallo, who traveled from Santa Monica, spoke about political risk methodology, Scott Malcomson (Strategic Insight Group) from New York shared his insights from the US-China tech war, and Florence Ertel (University of Passau) spoke about political risk for companies using the example of Kazakhstan.

From left to right: Hannes Meissner, Johannes Leitner, Rob Sorsby (Taylor & Francis), Cecilia Emma Sottilotta, Julian Campisi

On March 20, 2025, Johannes Leitner spoke about geopolitical risks at the Corporate Venturing & Entrepreneurship Summit 2025 in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Together with Patricia Klopf from the Erasmus School of Management, Johannes Leitner analysed current geopolitical dynamics and how they affect global institutions, logics and economic globalization in particular. In a further step, they discussed the effects on corporate strategies. Here is a link to the event homepage.

On the 100th day of the ongoing protests in Georgia, a panel bringing together experts in Georgian politics and international relations took place at the Central European University. The aim was to provide critical insights into the challenges the Georgian democracy faces and the broader regional significance of the country.

Together with Professor Kornely Kakachia (Tbilisi State University/Georgian Institute of Politics), Ambassador Natalie Sabanadze (Chatham House), and the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, Ambassador David Dondua, Hannes Meissner discussed the underlying causes of Georgia’s democratic backsliding, institutional erosion, elite power consolidation, and external influences. The panel also explored the geopolitical ramifications of these shifts, particularly in the context of growing Russian influence and the European Union’s wavering engagement. With Georgia’s political trajectory mirroring broader illiberal and autocratic trends across Europe, the discussion further assessed the role of international actors, civil society, and opposition forces in countering democratic decline. For more information on the event, please follow this link.

In front on site: Dr. Hannes Meissner, Ambassador David Dondua and the Moderator of the Panel, Jaba Devdariani. Copyright: CEU

Eastblog article by Matthijs Verheijen and Hannes Meissner in the Austrian Newspaper “Der Standard”

The Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in June 2024 sent a clear signal to European companies. Indeed, hopes were raised for a pro-European and democratic Ukraine that would guarantee maximum security for European companies through a rule of law and whose economy would boom thanks to the influx of external funds and foreign direct investment. However, a viable peace scenario has not emerged since then, and since Donal Trump took office, Ukraine's future is more uncertain than ever. In their latest Eastblog article, Matthijs Verheijen and Hannes Meissner analyze the geopolitical changes following Trump's inauguration, the uncertain future of Ukraine and the resulting risks and opportunities for European companies. Various scenarios - from a prolonged war to Russian hegemony - are associated with different consequences for companies. Please follow the link to the article.

NTV Podcast with Hannes Meissner

Georgian society has a strong pro-European orientation. Economically, however, the country is closely linked to Russia. What are the goals of the ruling party ‘Georgian Dream’? And what does this mean for Europe. These are the questions that Hannes Meissner discusses with Andrea Sellmann in the new NTV podcast ‘Wirtschaft, Welt & Weit’. These are the links to the podcast:

NTV

Apple Podcasts

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Article by Johannes Leitner in the journal “Compliance Praxis”

Modern trade compliance management is essential to protect the company from sanctions violations and ensure safe business practices in a geopolitical world. Embargoes and sanctions are important tools of international politics to react to military aggression without intervening militarily. Russia is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries, with the aim of weakening its military-industrial complex and economic capacities in order to stop the war against Ukraine. Despite the sanctions, Russia can continue its war through revenues from oil and gas sales and access to Western technology. Western countries such as the USA, UK and EU are expected to tighten their sanctions further. They will quickly introduce new sanctions in the event of further conflicts. This is the link to the article.

Eastblog Article by Johannes Leitner and Ana Todua

Ana Todua and Johannes Leitner analyse the political situation in Georgia following the parliamentary elections on 26 October 2024 and their significance for the country's future foreign policy. The elections are controversial and there are serious allegations of electoral offences. Nevertheless, the ruling party ‘Georgian Dream’ insists that it won the election de facto, which led to nationwide protests. The article describes the party's ‘multi-vector foreign policy’, which pursues both rapprochement with Russia and Euro-Atlantic integration. This contradictory strategy is presented as problematic, as it leaves the country's geopolitical orientation unclear. Which strategy is to be expected can be read in the article. Please follow his link.

by Matthijs Verheijen & Hannes Meissner, L&M PRISK Business Brief (Vol.2, January 2025)

Major Western support for Ukraine in the form of possible EU membership and the high level of financial support for reconstruction are raising hopes of a democratic Ukraine that guarantees maximum security for companies through the functioning rule of law and whose economy is booming thanks to the influx of external funding and FDI. With Donald Trump's inauguration, hopes are growing among many companies that there will soon be a stable peace-agreement with Russia and long-term stability will return. However, major uncertainties remain. The current L&M PRISK Business Brief analyses three different future scenarios for Ukraine and the associated opportunities and risks for companies and investors, discusses their probability and derives recommendations. To read the business brief, please follow this link.

Drawing on our deep insights and confidential sources, our business briefs provide macropolitical risk analysis and strategy recommendations on current topics. The aim is to provide our customers with a quick guide to current events and trends in post-Soviet countries and their implications for business. The business briefs are free of charge, but access requires registration.

Webtalk of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation with Hannes Meissner and Ute Kochlowski-Kadjaia

Since its official foundation on 1 January 2015, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), to which Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia belong, has promoted economic cooperation in the post-Soviet region with the main purpose of creating a single market. However, it has also been criticised as an instrument of Russian geopolitical power.

On the10th anniversary, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation organised a webtalk. The following questions were discussed: What economic successes has the Eurasian Economic Union achieved in the last ten years? What role does the EAEU play for the member states in an increasingly multipolar world order? How does Russia's dominance influence the economic and political balance within the Union? What impact do geopolitical tensions such as the Ukraine war have on the future of the EAEU? How great is the potential for an enlargement or deepening of the Union?

Hannes Meissner was joined in the discussion by Ute Kochlowski-Kadjaia, Project Manager Russia & Central Asia at the Friedrich Naumann Foundation. The webtalk, which was moderated by Andreas Christ, is available at the following link.

Article by Johannes Leitner in the journal “Compliance Praxis”

The widespread expectation is that the sanctions against Russia will be lifted quickly under the new Trump administration. In fact, the sanctions will be part of the leverage Trump intends to use to negotiate peace in Ukraine. Regardless of whether the negotiations are successful, Trump will act from a position of maximum strength. In the short and medium term, we must expect a tougher stance and increased enforcement of sanctions. In the context of geopolitical power struggles, sanctions will be part of the new reality in the long term, even if the focus will shift.

Please follow this link to the full article (in German).

Article by Hannes Meissner and Johannes Leitner in the Russian Analytical Digest (RAD), No. 322: “Russia and the South Caucasus.”

In the current geopolitical climate, an analysis of economic cooperation between Russia and the South Caucasus cannot be separated from geopolitics. Contrary to views that Russia is losing influence in the South Caucasus due to the Ukraine war, the authors argue that Russia is pursuing a long-term security and economic strategy that aims to extend Moscow’s control over the region through hybrid warfare, leveraging the Soviet legacy, cultural ties, economic dependencies, and business networks. Russia’s growing influence in Georgia and Azerbaijan, driven by security and economic interests, threatens Western control over the trade corridor from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Moscow’s ultimate goal is to push the West out of the region, as none of the three countries have the resilience or political will to oppose Russia in the long term.

This is the link to the full article.

Hannes Meissner recently discussed the current situation in Abkhazia with KevinSchulte, NTV. You can listen to the insights shared in the NTV Podcast “Wieder was gelernt”. The unrest was triggered by a possible investment agreement between Russia and the pro-Russian de-facto state of Abkhazia that is part of Georgia according to international law. The local opposition (Abkhazia is a relatively free country) feared a sell-out to Russia. However, the protests were in any way the result of any fundamental criticism of Russia. The region on the BlackSea lives from Russian transfer payments and Russian tourists. And Russia secures the independence of Abkhazia from Georgia. In the podcast, Hannes Meissner also highlights that the fears in Abkhazia are also related to the geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus. As Russia is gaining control over Georgia under the influence of oligarch Bidzina #Ivanishvili and the governing party Georgian Dream, controlled by him, Abkhazians fear a rapprochement between Tbilisi and Moscow, which could undermine their sovereignty.

As Azerbaijan hosted the COP 29, Hannes Meissner hand an interview Andrea Sellmann (NTV) about politics, economics and the business environment of Azerbaijan. In the NTV Podcast "Wirtschaft, Welt & Weit", Hannes Meissner explians that due to rampant corruption and clientelism, foreign companies only have a chance in Azerbaijan if they can offer Western technology and expertise. The country maintains close relations with Russia. A post-Soviet, Russian-speaking elite dominates the country and shares business interests. In the current geopolitcal conflict with the West, Russia can rely entirely on Azerbaijan's support. The war in Ukraine has made Azerbaijan more important to the European Union as an alternative gas supplier to Russia. It is striking that following the conclusion of the gas agreement with the EU, Azerbaijan also concluded an agreement with Russia on the supply of Russian gas to the Azerbaijani pipeline system. This is the link to the podcast.

New article by Johannes Leitner in the journal “Compliance Praxis”

Companies are experiencing a dramatic increase in government intervention such as economic sanctions, embargoes and export controls. In this environment, modern trade compliance management can provide a significant competitive advantage. Today, companies are increasingly confronted with the question of how to run a successful business while complying with sanctions regulations. In particular, managers are faced with the conflicting issues of how to implement sanctions regulations in their day-to-day business and what standards they must adhere to. The purpose of modern and effective trade compliance management is to create an operationalizable framework within which business can be conducted in compliance with sanctions. The article describes the most important steps that need to be implemented for modern trade compliance management. Please follow the link to the article (in German).

As part of a trade compliance project, the L&M PRISK team visited Moldova and Bulgaria this summer. Both countries are considered high-risk countries in terms of possible sanctions evasion.

This applies in particular to Moldova, which has no control over the pro-Russian region of Transnistria. Pro-Russian actors can also be found in Gagauzia in particular. However, the entire country is politically divided between pro-Russian and pro-European forces. The country is also suffering from sanctions and the interruption of supply chains as a result of the war in Ukraine. The high political risks are preventing urgently needed investment in the industrial sector and are therefore hindering economic development. Emigration and brain drain continue to pose a major problem, even if the negative effects are mitigated by the immigration of Ukrainians.

Bulgaria, on the other hand, shows far fewer political risks. However, the country is suffering from the fact that no government has yet been formed after six parliamentary elections. As a result, there is a backlog in EU funding reserved for Bulgaria. High inflation, falling approval ratings among the population and the unclear political constellation are jeopardizing accession to the eurozone in January 2025. Moreover, although the country is a member of the EU and NATO, there are still hidden trade flows to Russia, also encouraged by the pro-Russian stance of many entrepreneurs.

The Russian church "Sveti Nikolay Mirlikiiski" in Sofia. The country maintains close cultural and hidden business relations to Russia, despite of EU and NATO membership. (Source: Own Photo)

New Eastblog article by Johannes Leitner and Hannes Meissner in the Austrian daily newspaper “Der Standard”.

Despite far-reaching sanctions and geopolitical risks, many international companies remain active in Russia. An empirical analysis of company data from the Kyiv School of Economics shows this. Of the 3945 international companies surveyed that were active in Russia in 2022, 423 companies had completed an exit from Russia by September of this year. This corresponds to just under eleven percent of all companies recorded in the database. This raises the question of why more than 3,500 companies are still present in Russia? The article shows that legal uncertainty and expropriation risks are increasing, but that the market remains lucrative. At the same time, the reputational risks only have a weak impact. Please follow the link to the article (in German).

The GCM Parker conference “21st Business Ethics Anti-Corruption Compliance and Fraud Prevention Strategies in CEE” took place in Prague from September 26 to 27. L&M PRISK contributed with a presentation on “Firm Level Response to Sanctions and Anti-Corruption Compliance”. Moreover, Hannes Meissner took part in a panel discussion on “Sanctions Compliance and Screening”.

In his presentation on L&M PRISK's experience, Hannes Meissner emphasized that companies' anti-corruption strategies are increasingly shifting from retrospective damage limitation to proactive, forward-looking trade compliance management. The reason for this is the fact that the world is facing a multiple crisis. De-globalization, geopolitical conflicts and hybrid warfare between the West and the emerging bloc of authoritarian countries, sanctions regimes, terrorism and cyber risks are forcing Western countries to introduce more and stricter sanctions and trade compliance regulations. At the same time, law enforcement is on the rise. As enforcement agencies increasingly turn to experts to investigate the full picture of compliance violations, companies must respond appropriately. In this context, Hannes presented a best practice strategy for trade compliance risk management. He also illustrated this L&M PRISK approach using three current consultancy cases.

The panel discussion was moderated by Zoard Gazmar (Head of Compliance, OTP Bank). Other panelists were Nora Sljukic (Chief Compliance Officer and MLRO, UniCredit Bank Hungary) and Antonio Stoyanov (Senior Vice President, AlixPartners). In our discussion, we came to the conclusion that the circle of sanctions continues to escalate, driven by the ongoing geopolitical conflicts. However, while in the first phase after the Russian attack on Ukraine the pace of imposing sanctions was high, the strategy has now shifted to closing loopholes. This is characterized by secondary sanctions and attacks on individual targets responsible for the loopholes and identified by trade compliance authorities. As a next step, enforcement will become increasingly important. As we concluded, there are currently still far-reaching deficits here.   

L&M PRISK participated in this year’s Transform Finance Conference that took place in Frankfurt on 5 September. The conference revealed three major trends in political risk analysis and management. Firstly, against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and the global threat of terrorism, political risks for companies and banks are currently increasing massively. Political risk factors and constellations must be considered in their entirety. Secondly, KYC screenings must be carried out thoroughly and comprehensively before signing contracts and onboarding. Software checks alone and superficial checks to just meet legal obligations are no longer sufficient. In fact, this traditional approach is associated with massive risks, today. Thirdly, companies need comprehensive risk analysis and management models. It is no longer enough for individual company departments to simply collect and save data and view risks separately from one another. As panelists emphasized, the work of political risk managers will thus increase significantly and become more interesting in the coming years. Interpretations and comprehensive assessments by experts will be more important than ever before.

At the conference, Hannes met Josephine K. Vanek, CB -Trade Finance & Lending (TF&L) Operations - Embedded Risk Management at Deutsche Bank.

On the NTV "Wirtschaft Welt & Weit" podcast, Hannes Meissner discusses Moldova's EU accession prospects and the opportunities and risks for foreign investors in the country with Andrea Sellmann and Ludwig Graf Westarp. How successful is Moldova in terms of rule of law reforms? Will the economic situation improve? What opportunities does the country offer for Austrian and German companies? What is the impact of Russian plans to overthrow the government? Please follow the link to find answers to these and other questions.

The war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia are having a major impact on European companies. Many are looking for alternative markets, including in Central Asia. At first glance, gas-rich Turkmenistan seems particularly promising, and not just for energy companies. However, as Hannes Meissner emphasizes in the article “'Alles Walzer' in der Wüste” by Simone Brunner in "ZEIT ONLINE", political risks in Turkmenistan are high and require a special management strategy. Here is the link.