Putin’s plans in Ukraine and Central Asia. Current constellation, implications and prospects for business

L&M PRISK Business Circle # 12

L&M PRISK maintains a series of events where our Senior Experts discuss innovative and exclusive insights on current topics with selected companies confidentially under Chatham House Rules. On 22 September, our Senior Expert Dr. Elkhan Nuriyev (www.lm-prisk.com/elkhan-nuriyev) shared his insights on the current developments in the Ukraine war in particular and in the post-Soviet space and Central Asia in general. The meeting promised new insights for two reasons in particular. First, Dr. Nuriyev has deep insights into Russia's ruling system. Second, the event coincided with Russia's announcement of partial mobilisation and recent Ukrainian gains in terrain.

Dr. Nuriyev's remarks revealed that, despite difficulties in the course of the war, there is no admission of weakness or loss of control on the Russian side. On the contrary, the course of the war is following a clear plan with different levels of escalation. Russia's goal is to regain exclusive control over the entire post-Soviet space, including Central Asia. In contrast, the West is acting from a position of weakness, as it cannot provide the governments of the post-Soviet states with any security guarantees. In the perception of Russia's ruling elite, the West, especially the USA, is the real and true aggressor, grossly disregarding Russia's historical, cultural and security claims and refusing to negotiate on an equal footing over geopolitical zones of influence. Against this backdrop, after a Russian victory over Ukraine, new conflict hotspots are likely, for example over Moldova and/or Georgia, and along the border to Poland and the Baltic States. This is why the next few years will prove decisive in the struggle to reshape the post-Soviet neighbourhood. Given this background, companies in the region have not only to prepare for a long-lasting conflict, but also for the opportunities and risks of a new European post-war order, as Dr. Johannes Leitner, Managing Partner of L&M PRISK concluded.